As Close as it Gets; Why the NL Cy Young Race is One of the Tightest Ever
2018's Cy Young race has been one of baseball's leading discussions all year, and none of the pitchers are backing down. Since the very first weekend, Max Scherzer, Aaron Nola, and Jacob DeGrom have dominated in every facet of the game. There is no separation in ERA, WHIP, K's, or any other statistic that can accurately assess a player's true skill( notice that I didn't mention wins). The voters are going to have to go to the very nitty-gritty to make a pick, and at this point in the season, there really is no telling what they are going to decide. Here are, as of August 25, the cases for why each should win:
THE CASE FOR NOLA:
I'm putting the Phillie's ace up first because he is probably the least likely to win it. His ERA is tied with Scherzer's, but his FIP and K/9 are both the worst of the three. There are really only two ways he wins it: 1) The Phillies make the play-offs. Since the other two teams have no real chance at October-ball, the voters may decide that he should get it based solely on that(It's stupid, but also has happened before) or 2) The strong second half he's had so far turns in to a ridiculous streak that puts his stats on with that of his two opponents. There is a chance that option 2 could wind up leading to 1, and, if that's the case, he may truly deserve it. However, the odds are definitely against Aaron at this point in the season.
THE CASE FOR SCHERZER:
The Washington Nashinal's ace Max Scherzer may have been the best pitcher in baseball over the past three seasons. From 2016 to this year, he has had a 2.56 ERA, 2.95 FIP, and a 0.922 WHIP. He averaged 265 K's per season and 11.7 per nine. Those numbers are incredible and, because Kershaw hasn't been able to stay healthy, make him undisputedly the best pitcher in the National League in that stretch. This year has been more of the same, as he has struck out 12.1 per nine along with a 2.13 ERA and an absurd league leading 0.866 WHIP. His ERA and FIP aren't quite on the same level as Jacob DeGrom, but his league leading strike-out and win totals may put him over the edge, since the voters love looking at those. The biggest thing going against him right now is probably voter-fatigue. After winning it the last two years, they may be a little reluctant to give it to him a third, especially with two very worthy candidates instead. Based solely on the stats, however, he may have a slight edge, depending mostly on how much you value K's.
THE CASE FOR DEGROM:
Jacob DeGrom's year has been easily the most frustrating of the three. Not because he hasn't been dominant, which definitely has, but because the Met's bullpen always coughs up the small leads that the mediocre team around him can only sometimes muster. Being as good as he is and still always losing can't be fun. His year has been synonymous with the Cleveland Cavalier's Finals. Just as Lebron's dominance couldn't keep George Hill from missing free throws or JR Smith from forgetting the score, DeGrom can't seem to pitch deep enough in the game to give the Mets a win. At one point, his bullpen's ERA was above 7 after he came out of a game, and it hasn't gotten much better. Despite what must be a terrible distraction, he still may be the top Cy Young candidate. He leads the league in ERA and FIP. He has more fWAR than all three, although he is slightly below both in bWAR(averaged, he would still be leading them all). His strikeout numbers are very impressive, as he sits just a shade below Scherzer at 11.1. There isn't a lot of separation between the three, but nobody would look twice if would up taking home the gold.
THE VERDICT:
It is a very difficult race to call. None of the players have seemed to slow down, so there it hasn't even seemed as if one might finally fall behind the others. It is going to go down to the wire, and who ever has the best last month in 2018 may be the one who wins. As of right now, though, I think DeGrom has the best chance. Although the difference between him and the others is razor thin, I think the voters will choose him because they sympathize with him. His team has been so bad that they will overlook the lack of wins(as they should), especially since none of the other teams are currently in the playoffs. Especially since Scherzer won the last two, the voters may decide that DeGrom is the new face that deserves to have his frustrating record made right by giving him the recognition he deserves. A lot could change between now and game 162, but right now I definitely think he has the advantage.